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Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.62 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 49% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 27%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights