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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Varbergs BoIS FC defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Varbergs BoIS FC beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.23 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 36% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.35 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights