GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Utsikten travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 August 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Utsikten — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utsikten have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utsikten are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Utsikten and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Utsikten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Utsikten in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Utsikten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.24 xG and Utsikten 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.929 / defence 1.246 | Utsikten attack 0.976 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.141. Data: 46 GIF Sundsvall games / 46 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 40%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Utsikten 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.24 / Utsikten 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.929 / def 1.246 | Utsikten attack 0.976 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Utsikten xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 2 August 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 33% chance of winning, Utsikten a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Utsikten (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.93x the league average against Utsikten's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
33%
3.01
27%
3.76
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.63
1.39
Utsikten xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.39 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 11D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.63 PPG from 46 outings (21W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.43 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 21W 12D 13L in their last 46 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.35 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.43 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jun 2023, when Utsikten won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Utsikten have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Utsikten 4-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 65%, Utsikten 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (GIF Sundsvall) and 39% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 30%; Utsikten in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 44% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 39% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Utsikten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Utsikten 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.24 xG and Utsikten 1.39 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Utsikten attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 40%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.