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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Umeå FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Umeå FC 3-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.69 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Umeå FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 23%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 46%, Umeå FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Umeå FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights