GIF Sundsvall 3-1 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Umeå FC make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 29 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Umeå FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Umeå FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward GIF Sundsvall. A 0.70 PPG lead over Umeå FC (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Umeå FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 0 for Umeå FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Umeå FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Umeå FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 46% | Umeå FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.69 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.844 / defence 1.124 | Umeå FC attack 0.806 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.158. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 GIF Sundsvall games / 24 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 23%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Umeå FC 4.35. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Umeå FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.69 / Umeå FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.844 / def 1.124 | Umeå FC attack 0.806 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Umeå FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 1 Umeå FC.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 52% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Umeå FC 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Umeå FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.84x the league average against Umeå FC's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Umeå FC's attack (0.81x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.98
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.74
1.05
Umeå FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
4%
23.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.05 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 24 games, going 10W 5D 9L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Umeå FC sit at 0.38 PPG from 24 outings (1W 6D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Umeå FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Umeå FC have taken 0.50 points per game from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Umeå FC are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Umeå FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Umeå FC have gone 1W 6D 17L in their last 24 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Umeå FC away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.08 PPG; Umeå FC away: 0.50 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Umeå FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Umeå FC in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Umeå FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 3-1 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 58%, Umeå FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (GIF Sundsvall) and 58% (Umeå FC).
On the defensive side: Umeå FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Umeå FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of Umeå FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Umeå FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 58% of Umeå FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Umeå FC tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Umeå FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Umeå FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Umeå FC 3-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.69 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Umeå FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 52% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 23%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 46%, Umeå FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Umeå FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.