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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Trelleborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall beat Trelleborg 4-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.16 xG and Trelleborg 0.72 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.76 / defence 0.96 against Trelleborg attack 0.56 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 31% | Trelleborg 23%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, Trelleborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights