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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.18 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Orgryte IS attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 45%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 49%, Orgryte IS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Orgryte IS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.29 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights