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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kalmar FF beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.99 xG and Kalmar FF 1.10 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Kalmar FF attack 0.86 / defence 0.68, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 38%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 51%, Kalmar FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.32 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights