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Stalemate at GIF Sundsvall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 11, as GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.62 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Falkenbergs FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Falkenbergs FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 25% | Falkenbergs FF 47%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Falkenbergs FF 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Falkenbergs FF managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights