Gefle IF 2-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Osters IF at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gefle IF vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Osters IF travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gefle IF stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gefle IF have posted 3W 4D 3L at Gavlevallen — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osters IF — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gefle IF, 0 for Osters IF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gefle IF trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Osters IF trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Osters IF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 59% | Osters IF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.37 xG and Osters IF 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.003 / defence 1.392 | Osters IF attack 1.119 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.168. Data: 49 Gefle IF games / 49 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 28% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 48%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Osters IF 2.08. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Gefle IF dominate the H2H record, yet Osters IF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 70% | Osters IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 28% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Gefle IF 1.37 / Osters IF 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.003 / def 1.392 | Osters IF attack 1.119 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Osters IF xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Osters IF kick off?
Gefle IF vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Gefle IF 2 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Gefle IF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Osters IF part of?
Gefle IF vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 28% chance of winning, Osters IF a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gefle IF and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Osters IF?
Record (3 meetings): Gefle IF 2W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Gefle IF and Osters IF in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 1.00x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
28%
3.51
24%
4.18
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.19
1.82
Osters IF xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
5%
21.66
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.82 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gefle IF come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 16D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.78 PPG from 49 outings (25W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gefle IF's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Gefle IF are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.76 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 25W 12D 12L in their last 49 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Osters IF away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.54 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Osters IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gefle IF's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gefle IF
1
Draws
0
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Osters IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 3, Osters IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when Gefle IF 2-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Osters IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gefle IF at 58%, Osters IF at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Gefle IF and 67% for Osters IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Gefle IF's games and 79% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Gefle IF's matches and 67% of Osters IF's.
Do Gefle IF and Osters IF tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gefle IF defy the odds to beat Osters IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Osters IF 2-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.37 xG and Osters IF 1.82 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.39 against Osters IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 28% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 48%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Gefle IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 59%, Osters IF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Gefle IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.