Gefle IF 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gefle IF host Landskrona BoIS at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gefle IF — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gefle IF at Gavlevallen this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gefle IF 0.90 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gefle IF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | Landskrona BoIS 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.44 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.220 / defence 1.129 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.260 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.020. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Gefle IF games / 41 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 37% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 38%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 50% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 37% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Gefle IF 1.44 / Landskrona BoIS 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.220 / def 1.129 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.260 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Landskrona BoIS xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Gefle IF 1 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 37% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 1.22x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
37%
2.69
25%
3.96
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.89
1.45
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.45 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 13L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.23 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 5W 2D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gefle IF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gefle IF's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 0-2 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 53%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Gefle IF and 67% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gefle IF's matches and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Gefle IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Gefle IF 1-2 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.44 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.45 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.22 / defence 1.13 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 37% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 38%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, Landskrona BoIS 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.23 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.