Gais 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 55%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gais vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 22 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Landskrona BoIS are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Gais 0W, Landskrona BoIS 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 41% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.61 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.120 / defence 0.966 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.822 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.075. Data: 3 Gais games / 33 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gais 55% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 20%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Gais (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gais 70% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 55% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Gais 1.61 / Landskrona BoIS 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.120 / def 0.966 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.822 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Gais (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Landskrona BoIS xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Gais vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Gais 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Gais vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Gais vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 55% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gais and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Gais and Landskrona BoIS in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gais's attack at 1.12x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.82x) against Gais's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.02
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Gais xG
Total xG
2.47
0.85
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
25.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gais and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Gais and 0.85 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gais come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 5D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (12W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Gais against 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gais's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.34 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Gais's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.12 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gais
0
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Landskrona BoIS?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2023, when Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 62%, Landskrona BoIS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 44% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Gais's recent matches and 44% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 44% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.61 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.85 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gais 55% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 20%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 41%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.09 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.