Falkenbergs FF 0-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Falkenbergs FF welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Falkenbergs FF have posted 6W 2D 2L at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Falkenbergs FF 1.70 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Falkenbergs FF, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 50% and Varbergs BoIS FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 63% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.56 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.903 / defence 0.732 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.084 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Falkenbergs FF's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Falkenbergs FF games / 36 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 49% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.85. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 49% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.56 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.903 / def 0.732 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.084 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Falkenbergs FF 0 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 49% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (4 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.94
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.62
1.06
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.06 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Falkenbergs FF's recent record stands at 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 9L across 30 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Falkenbergs FF on 1.53 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Falkenbergs FF have managed 8W 5D 2L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Falkenbergs FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 70%.
Defensively: Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.93 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
4
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 40%, Varbergs BoIS FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Falkenbergs FF and 67% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 80% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Falkenbergs FF 0-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.56 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.90 / defence 0.73 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 49% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 26%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 63%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.53 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.