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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.26 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 100%, Varbergs BoIS FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Falkenbergs FF scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights