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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Falkenbergs FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Utsikten.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Falkenbergs FF beat Utsikten 3-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.86 xG and Utsikten 0.91 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Utsikten attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 59% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 17%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 57%, Utsikten 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Utsikten's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.38 PPG, Utsikten 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights