🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Falkenbergs FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Falkenbergs FF beat Ostersunds FK 4-0 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 2.03 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.66 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.66 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 69% | Draw 20% | Ostersunds FK 11%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 62%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ostersunds FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.50 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights