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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.81 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 48% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 29%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 67%, Landskrona BoIS 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights