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Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Falkenbergs FF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IK brage beat Falkenbergs FF 0-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.57 xG and IK brage 1.72 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against IK brage attack 1.38 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 23% | IK brage 41%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 59%, IK brage 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

IK brage's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights