Falkenbergs FF 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 4 as Falkenbergs FF welcome GIF Sundsvall to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Falkenbergs FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Falkenbergs FF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Falkenbergs FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Falkenbergs FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 50% versus GIF Sundsvall 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 63% | GIF Sundsvall 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.86 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.993 / defence 0.956 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.834 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.201. Data: 33 Falkenbergs FF games / 33 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 59% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 19%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | GIF Sundsvall 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Falkenbergs FF (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Falkenbergs FF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Falkenbergs FF 30% | GIF Sundsvall 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 59% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.86 / GIF Sundsvall 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.993 / def 0.956 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.834 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 59% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 1W | Draws 3 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (0.99) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.46
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.82
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
33.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 0.96 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Falkenbergs FF's recent record stands at 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 12L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Falkenbergs FF on 1.53 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Falkenbergs FF have managed 8W 5D 2L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 7W 2D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.20 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.93 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Falkenbergs FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Falkenbergs FF
3
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 6 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 40%, GIF Sundsvall 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Falkenbergs FF and 53% for GIF Sundsvall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 53% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 53% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Falkenbergs FF edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.86 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Falkenbergs FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 59% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 19%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 63%, GIF Sundsvall 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.53 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.