Degerfors IF 2-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Oddevold encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Oddevold's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Superettan this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Degerfors IF. A 1.40 PPG lead over Oddevold (2.00 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Oddevold in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Degerfors IF, 0 for Oddevold and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 75% and Oddevold 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Oddevold 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 2.59 xG and Oddevold 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.275 / defence 1.028 | Oddevold attack 1.023 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.125. Degerfors IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Degerfors IF games / 16 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 68% | Draw 17% | Oddevold 15%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Oddevold 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 80% | Oddevold 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 68% | Draw 17% | Oddevold 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 64% | xG Degerfors IF 2.59 / Oddevold 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.275 / def 1.028 | Oddevold attack 1.023 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Oddevold xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Oddevold kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Oddevold?
Degerfors IF 2 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Oddevold part of?
Degerfors IF vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 68% chance of winning, Oddevold a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Degerfors IF and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Oddevold in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Oddevold (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.59. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (1.02x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
68%
1.48
17%
5.90
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.78
1.18
Oddevold xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.90
17%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
7%
13.38
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
1%
87.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.18 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Oddevold?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 5D 3L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Oddevold — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 6W 1D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oddevold's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.06 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Oddevold in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Oddevold away?
Degerfors IF's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 2.38 PPG; Oddevold away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Oddevold?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Oddevold have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-2 Oddevold.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Degerfors IF, 62% for Oddevold — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Degerfors IF and 75% for Oddevold. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Degerfors IF's games and 62% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Degerfors IF's matches and 75% of Oddevold's.
Do Degerfors IF and Oddevold tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Oddevold share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, as Degerfors IF and Oddevold drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 2.59 xG and Oddevold 1.18 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Oddevold outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against Oddevold attack 1.02 / defence 1.37, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 68% | Draw 17% | Oddevold 15%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Oddevold 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Oddevold's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Degerfors IF arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.