Degerfors IF 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Degerfors IF welcome GIF Sundsvall to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF at Stora Valla this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Degerfors IF at 1.60 PPG versus GIF Sundsvall's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 2, GIF Sundsvall 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus GIF Sundsvall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.34 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.984 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.131. Data: 1 Degerfors IF games / 31 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 35%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Degerfors IF 1.34 / GIF Sundsvall 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.984 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
GIF Sundsvall xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Degerfors IF 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 38% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.87) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.81
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.28 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 10D 13L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.03 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.23 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Degerfors IF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 4, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, GIF Sundsvall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Degerfors IF) and 47% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.34 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 35%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.