Dalkurd FF 1-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalkurd FF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Dalkurd FF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalkurd FF at 2.00 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.70 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.858 / defence 0.984 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.832 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.438. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Dalkurd FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Dalkurd FF games / 38 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 48% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 4.00. Dalkurd FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalkurd FF at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalkurd FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 48% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.70 / Vasteras SK FK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.858 / def 0.984 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.832 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Dalkurd FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Vasteras SK FK xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Dalkurd FF 1 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 48% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalkurd FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalkurd FF's attack rating (0.86) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Dalkurd FF's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalkurd FF Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.74
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.88
1.18
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.18 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Dalkurd FF have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dalkurd FF are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasteras SK FK.
The Goals Picture
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalkurd FF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Vasteras SK FK in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
Vasteras SK FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Vasteras SK FK 4-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dalkurd FF's games and 100% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalkurd FF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Dalkurd FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Dalkurd FF 1-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.70 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.86 / defence 0.98 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 48% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25%, with Dalkurd FF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 50%, Vasteras SK FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalkurd FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Vasteras SK FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalkurd FF shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.