Dalkurd FF 3-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 41%, yet in-form Dalkurd FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Studenternas IP to take on Dalkurd FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 June 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalkurd FF stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Dalkurd FF have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.37 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.856 / defence 1.094 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.035 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.370. Data: 10 Dalkurd FF games / 40 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 33% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 41%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalkurd FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 33% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.37 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.856 / def 1.094 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.035 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.55
AFC Eskilstuna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Dalkurd FF 3 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 33% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalkurd FF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Dalkurd FF's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.84
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.92
1.55
AFC Eskilstuna xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.55 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalkurd FF's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AFC Eskilstuna by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalkurd FF heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dalkurd FF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: AFC Eskilstuna in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Dalkurd FF or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalkurd FF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalkurd FF
1
Draws
0
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when AFC Eskilstuna 0-0 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Dalkurd FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dalkurd FF's games and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalkurd FF vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalkurd FF and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalkurd FF defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.37 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.55 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dalkurd FF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 33% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 41%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dalkurd FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Dalkurd FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalkurd FF scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.