Akropolis 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Gais travel to Grimsta IP to take on Akropolis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akropolis stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Akropolis's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Grimsta IP this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akropolis 1.40 PPG, Gais 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Akropolis have won 0, Gais 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Akropolis in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gais in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akropolis 46% versus Gais 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akropolis 39% | Gais 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 1.06 xG and Gais 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.833 / defence 1.107 | Gais attack 0.800 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.237. Data: 28 Akropolis games / 28 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 34% | Draw 31% | Gais 35%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Gais 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Akropolis 40% | Gais 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 34% | Draw 31% | Gais 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Akropolis 1.06 / Gais 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.833 / def 1.107 | Gais attack 0.800 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Gais (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Gais xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Gais kick off?
Akropolis vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Gais?
Akropolis 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is Akropolis vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Gais part of?
Akropolis vs Gais is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 34% chance of winning, Gais a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akropolis and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Akropolis 0W | Draws 1 | Gais 0W.
What form are Akropolis and Gais in?
Akropolis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Gais (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Akropolis's attack at 0.83x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Akropolis's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.23
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.16
1.09
Gais xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Akropolis and 1.09 for Gais, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akropolis come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 7D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (9W 3D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akropolis on 1.21 PPG, Gais on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Akropolis's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (5W 1D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Akropolis are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.04 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akropolis and Gais in coming into this match?
Akropolis have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Gais have gone 9W 3D 16L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akropolis at home or Gais away?
Akropolis's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akropolis at home: 1.50 PPG; Gais away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Akropolis
2
Draws
0
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 0, Gais have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Akropolis 0-0 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Akropolis 43% BTTS, Gais 21%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Akropolis and 29% for Gais.
On the defensive side: Akropolis have failed to score in 29% of games; Gais in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akropolis play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Akropolis's recent matches and 21% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akropolis vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Akropolis's recent games and 29% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akropolis and Gais tend to score early?
Akropolis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gais in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akropolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 29, as Akropolis and Gais drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 1.06 xG and Gais 1.09 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akropolis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Gais attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 34% | Draw 31% | Gais 35%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akropolis 39%, Gais 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akropolis's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gais's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akropolis 1.21 PPG, Gais 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akropolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.