AFC Eskilstuna 3-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Utsikten travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna at Tunavallen this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Utsikten — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's away record: 4W 0D 5L from 9 road trips in Superettan this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (AFC Eskilstuna) versus 1.00 (Utsikten). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AFC Eskilstuna, 0 for Utsikten and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Utsikten in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 68% versus Utsikten 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 63% | Utsikten 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.85 xG and Utsikten 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.043 / defence 0.972 | Utsikten attack 0.904 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.352. Utsikten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 AFC Eskilstuna games / 19 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 23%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Utsikten 4.35. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | Utsikten 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.85 / Utsikten 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.043 / def 0.972 | Utsikten attack 0.904 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Utsikten xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten?
AFC Eskilstuna 3 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 52% chance of winning, Utsikten a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 1W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.99
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.04
1.19
Utsikten xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.19 for Utsikten, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 8W 3D 8L from 19 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 7L across 19 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.42 PPG, Utsikten on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 4W 0D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.47 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Utsikten in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Utsikten away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.78 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Utsikten in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
0
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, Utsikten have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when Utsikten 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 56%, Utsikten 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 56% (Utsikten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Utsikten in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 33% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's matches and 56% of Utsikten's.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Utsikten tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Utsikten 3-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.85 xG and Utsikten 1.19 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Utsikten attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 23%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 63%, Utsikten 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.42 PPG, Utsikten 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.