AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Osters IF travel to Tunavallen to take on AFC Eskilstuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Eskilstuna 1.50 PPG, Osters IF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Osters IF, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for AFC Eskilstuna.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Osters IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Osters IF have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 52% versus Osters IF 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 52% | Osters IF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 xG and Osters IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.942 / defence 0.832 | Osters IF attack 1.321 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.104. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 AFC Eskilstuna games / 46 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Draw 27% | Osters IF 31%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Osters IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | Osters IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Draw 27% | Osters IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 / Osters IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.942 / def 0.832 | Osters IF attack 1.321 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Osters IF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 42% chance of winning, Osters IF a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 4W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (0.94) and Osters IF's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.65
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
Osters IF xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.21 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 17W 9D 20L from 46 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 14L across 46 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.30 PPG, Osters IF on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 11W 4D 8L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osters IF's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.67 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Osters IF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.61 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 52%, Osters IF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 61% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 70% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 61% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 17, as AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 xG and Osters IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Osters IF attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Draw 27% | Osters IF 31%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 52%, Osters IF 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 PPG, Osters IF 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.