AFC Eskilstuna 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna host Gais at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Tunavallen, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AFC Eskilstuna at 1.00 PPG versus Gais's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Gais 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gais in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 59% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Gais 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.20 xG and Gais 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.834 / defence 0.872 | Gais attack 1.029 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.138. Data: 38 AFC Eskilstuna games / 8 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | Draw 29% | Gais 31%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Gais 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Gais 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | Draw 29% | Gais 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.20 / Gais 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.834 / def 0.872 | Gais attack 1.029 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gais xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 40% chance of winning, Gais a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 1W | Draws 1 | Gais 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Gais in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.47
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.22
1.02
Gais xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.02 for Gais, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 4D 14L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Gais's form line: 10W 5D 17L from 32 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.44 PPG, Gais on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (9W 1D 6L).
On the road, Gais have gone 5W 2D 9L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
Gais
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Gais in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 14W 4D 14L in their last 32 games (1.44 PPG), while Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Gais away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.75 PPG; Gais away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Gais runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Gais specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Gais have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Gais 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 56%, Gais 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 31% (Gais).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gais in 31%; Gais in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 25% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 31% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Gais tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gais in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AFC Eskilstuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 9, as AFC Eskilstuna and Gais drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.20 xG and Gais 1.02 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Gais attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 40% | Draw 29% | Gais 31%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 56%, Gais 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 PPG, Gais 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.