Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Kalmar FF travel to Hitachi Energy Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 5W 3D 2L at Hitachi Energy Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Vasteras SK FK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Kalmar FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 49% versus Kalmar FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 64% | Kalmar FF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.86 xG and Kalmar FF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.979 / defence 1.005 | Kalmar FF attack 0.786 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.383. Data: 17 Vasteras SK FK games / 17 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 54% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Kalmar FF 4.76. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Kalmar FF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 54% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.86 / Kalmar FF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.979 / def 1.005 | Kalmar FF attack 0.786 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 54% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF?
Record (5 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 3W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.98) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.00
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
30.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.09 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 47 games, going 27W 9D 11L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 1.74 PPG from 47 outings (23W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.91 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 14W 7D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (6W 10D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.55 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Kalmar FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 27W 9D 11L in their last 47 games (1.91 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 23W 13D 11L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Kalmar FF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.13 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Vasteras SK FK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 48%, Kalmar FF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Vasteras SK FK) and 39% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 39%; Kalmar FF in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 44% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 39% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vasteras SK FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF finished level at 0-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.86 xG and Kalmar FF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Kalmar FF attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 54% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 21%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 64%, Kalmar FF 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.91 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.