Vasteras SK FK 2-3 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Gais to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 1.20 (Gais). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Gais trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 43% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 51% | Gais 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.10 xG and Gais 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.729 / defence 1.132 | Gais attack 0.690 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.361. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Vasteras SK FK games / 21 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 34%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Gais 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Gais 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.10 / Gais 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.729 / def 1.132 | Gais attack 0.690 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gais xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 3 Gais.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 36% chance of winning, Gais a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Record (5 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 3W | Draws 0 | Gais 2W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Gais (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.40
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.16
1.06
Gais xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.06 for Gais, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 9D 18L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.76 PPG from 51 outings (27W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.59 PPG, Gais on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.69 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 9D 18L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Gais have gone 27W 9D 15L in their last 51 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Gais away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.72 PPG; Gais away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Gais runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Gais specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 44%, Gais 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Vasteras SK FK) and 60% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gais in 40%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 32% of games; Gais in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 44% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 60% of Gais's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Gais tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gais in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Vasteras SK FK 2-3 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.10 xG and Gais 1.06 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gais outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.73 / defence 1.13 against Gais attack 0.69 / defence 0.95, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 34%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 51%, Gais 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.59 PPG, Gais 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.