Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome IFK Goteborg to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 18 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.81 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.648. Data: 1 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 1 IFK Goteborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 15% | Draw 32% | IFK Goteborg 53%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 6.67 | Draw 3.12 | IFK Goteborg 1.89. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 15% | Draw 32% | IFK Goteborg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.81 / IFK Goteborg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.648 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
IFK Goteborg xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 June 2020 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 15% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 53% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
15%
6.51
32%
3.14
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.61
IFK Goteborg xG
6.51
15%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
3%
32.58
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.3 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.61 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.81 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 15% | Draw 32% | IFK Goteborg 53%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.