Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC host Djurgardens IF at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Varbergs BoIS FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Varbergs BoIS FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, Djurgardens IF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2020, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 57% versus Djurgardens IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Djurgardens IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.14 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.045 / defence 1.284 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.176 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.020. Data: 32 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 32 Djurgardens IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 28% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 46%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 2.17. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 80% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 28% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.14 / Djurgardens IF 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.045 / def 1.284 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.176 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Djurgardens IF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 28% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
Record (2 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.04) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
28%
3.61
26%
3.81
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.54
Djurgardens IF xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
6%
16.84
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.54 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 10W 7D 13L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 14W 6D 10L from 30 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.23 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 73%, Djurgardens IF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Varbergs BoIS FC and 53% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 47% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 53% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.14 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.54 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 28% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 46%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Djurgardens IF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.