Utsikten 0-7 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Utsikten face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IF Brommapojkarna travel to Bravida Arena to take on Utsikten in Allsvenskan (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Utsikten have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utsikten at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utsikten 1.10 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Utsikten, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Oct 2022, ended Utsikten 1–0 IF Brommapojkarna — a Utsikten win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Utsikten trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.61 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.056 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.263. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Utsikten's projected output up. Data: built from Utsikten's last 0 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 30.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 40% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 36%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.51 | Draw 4.23 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utsikten at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Utsikten's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utsikten 50% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 40% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Utsikten 1.61 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.056 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Utsikten 0 - 7 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (Relegation Round) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 40% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 0.85x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Utsikten's last 0 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.23
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Utsikten xG
Total xG
3.14
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.53 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utsikten come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 7D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (10W 3D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.23 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Utsikten's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across their last 15 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 15 away games (5W 1D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Utsikten are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.33 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Utsikten (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utsikten
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 10W 3D 17L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Utsikten's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.20 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 27 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Nov 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna won Utsikten 0-7 IF Brommapojkarna.
Utsikten's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Utsikten
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Utsikten have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 November 2023: IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utsikten) and 67% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utsikten's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Utsikten's matches and 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Utsikten's recent matches and 73% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Utsikten 0-7 at Bravida Arena, Relegation Round, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.61 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.6 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.53 projection by 5.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 40% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 36%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.23 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.