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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Sirius 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 1-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.11 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.61 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.24 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 26% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 49%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 61%, Mjallby AIF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights