Sirius 3-4 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Malmo FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Malmo FF travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 July 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Malmo FF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Malmo FF are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Malmo FF, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Sirius.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Malmo FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Malmo FF have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 52% versus Malmo FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sirius 64% | Malmo FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.63 xG and Malmo FF 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.097 / defence 0.985 | Malmo FF attack 1.239 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.372. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sirius games / 45 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 39%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Malmo FF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sirius 1.63 / Malmo FF 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.097 / def 0.985 | Malmo FF attack 1.239 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Malmo FF xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Malmo FF kick off?
Sirius vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 19 July 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Sirius 3 - 4 Malmo FF.
Where is Sirius vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Malmo FF part of?
Sirius vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 38% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sirius and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Record (5 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 4W.
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.10x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
38%
2.65
23%
4.35
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.31
1.67
Malmo FF xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sirius and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sirius and 1.67 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 9D 18L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.18 PPG from 44 outings (30W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 10W 3D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.77 points per game from 22 outings (12W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 2.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.30 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 9D 18L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 30W 6D 8L in their last 44 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.50 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Sirius or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
1
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Malmo FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 50%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sirius and 64% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Malmo FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sirius's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sirius's matches and 64% of Malmo FF's.
Do Sirius and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Sirius 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Sirius 3-4 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.63 xG and Malmo FF 1.67 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Malmo FF outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Malmo FF attack 1.24 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 38% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 39%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, Malmo FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.