Sirius 3-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sirius face Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sirius's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Kalmar FF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kalmar FF away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sirius, 1.50 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sirius's last 10 home games and Kalmar FF's last 10 away games) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kalmar FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Sirius, 1 for Kalmar FF and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2023, ended Sirius 2–2 Kalmar FF — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 44% versus Kalmar FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 48% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.42 xG and Kalmar FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.979 / defence 1.245 | Kalmar FF attack 0.847 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.235. Sirius's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kalmar FF's projected output up. Data: built from Sirius's last 48 games and Kalmar FF's last 48.
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.52 | Draw 3.86 | Kalmar FF 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sirius's last 10 home games and Kalmar FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sirius 60% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 19 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sirius 1.42 / Kalmar FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.979 / def 1.245 | Kalmar FF attack 0.847 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sirius vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does Sirius vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Sirius 3 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sirius vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 19) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sirius and Kalmar FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sirius vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.85x) against Sirius's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Sirius's last 48 games and Kalmar FF's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.86
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sirius vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sirius and 1.30 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 13W 13D 22L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 15L across 48 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 8W 3D 13L from their last 24 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.29 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
Sirius (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sirius
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Sirius vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.12 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sirius or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won Sirius 3-0 Kalmar FF on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
4
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Sirius vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sirius have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Kalmar FF 1-0 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 46%, Kalmar FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sirius) and 46% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sirius vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sirius and Kalmar FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sirius's recent matches and 58% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sirius and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sirius's recent games and 46% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sirius's recent matches and 71% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Kalmar FF 3-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.42 xG and Kalmar FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 48%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.