Sirius 1-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 42%, yet in-form IFK Goteborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 27 June 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, IFK Goteborg are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sirius, 0 for IFK Goteborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 63% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.24 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.936 / defence 0.973 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.914 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.133. Data: 40 Sirius games / 40 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 42% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Goteborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Goteborg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | IFK Goteborg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 42% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Sirius 1.24 / IFK Goteborg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.936 / def 0.973 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.914 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Sirius (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.01
IFK Goteborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Sirius 1 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 42% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sirius and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.94x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.91x) against Sirius's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
42%
2.41
29%
3.49
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.25
1.01
IFK Goteborg xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sirius and 1.01 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 19W 18D 23L from 60 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 21L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sirius against 1.25 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 12W 8D 10L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 9W 13D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 21D 21L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Sirius's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.47 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sirius or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 63%, IFK Goteborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sirius) and 50% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sirius's games and 57% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sirius's matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Sirius and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Sirius 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Sirius 1-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.24 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.01 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 42% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.25 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.