Sirius 2-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 28 June 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 0.93 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.958 / defence 1.302 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.907 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 0.838 / away 1.540. Data: 3 Sirius games / 3 IFK Goteborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sirius 16% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 55%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Goteborg 1.82. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 16% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Sirius 0.93 / IFK Goteborg 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.958 / def 1.302 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.907 / def 1.160 | league avg home 0.838 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.82
IFK Goteborg xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Sirius 2 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 16% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sirius and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.96x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.91x) against Sirius's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
16%
6.35
29%
3.42
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.75
1.82
IFK Goteborg xG
6.35
16%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
39.13
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sirius and 1.82 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Pre-Season
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sirius and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 4, as Sirius and IFK Goteborg drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.93 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.82 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 16% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 55%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.