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Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.57 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.45 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 41% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 35%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, IFK Goteborg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.20 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights