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Dominant Sirius run riot with a 4-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat IF Elfsborg 4-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.99 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.26 / defence 0.96 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 61% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 17%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 63%, IF Elfsborg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.25 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights