Sirius 4-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Studenternas IP this season.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Sirius against 1.90 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IF Elfsborg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to IF Elfsborg, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 53% versus IF Elfsborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | IF Elfsborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.68 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.089 / defence 1.114 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.264 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.216. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Sirius games / 55 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | IF Elfsborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Sirius 1.68 / IF Elfsborg 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.089 / def 1.114 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.264 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.71
IF Elfsborg xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Sirius 4 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 38% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sirius and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 5W.
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.09x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.26x) against Sirius's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
38%
2.65
23%
4.32
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.39
1.71
IF Elfsborg xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.70
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sirius and 1.71 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 10D 22L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.91 PPG from 55 outings (32W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 12W 3D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (14W 3D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.95 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 23W 10D 22L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 32W 9D 14L in their last 55 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.44 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Sirius or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
0
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 52%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sirius and 59% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 26% of games; IF Elfsborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sirius's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 59% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Sirius and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 4-1 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Elfsborg 4-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.68 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.71 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 38% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 39%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.