Sirius 3-4 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 8 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 1.50 PPG clear of Sirius in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sirius, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 50% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 52% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 0.88 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.797 / defence 1.234 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.999 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.045. Sirius's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Sirius games / 36 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 25% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 46%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.17. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 25% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Sirius 0.88 / IF Elfsborg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.797 / def 1.234 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.999 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IF Elfsborg xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Sirius 3 - 4 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 25% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sirius and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
Record (3 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.80x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.00x) against Sirius's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
25%
3.94
29%
3.50
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.17
1.29
IF Elfsborg xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sirius and 1.29 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 15D 26L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 60 outings (30W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 13W 4D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 15D 26L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Sirius or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
0
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 43%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sirius) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sirius's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sirius's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Sirius 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 3-4 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.88 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.00 / defence 0.69, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 25% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 46%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 52%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.