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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sirius.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat Sirius 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.35 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights