Sirius 3-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sirius welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Studenternas IP this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sirius carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sirius, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 55% versus IF Brommapojkarna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 63% | IF Brommapojkarna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.01 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.123 / defence 1.052 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.199 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.382. Data: 51 Sirius games / 51 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 45% | Draw 21% | IF Brommapojkarna 34%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.94. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 45% | Draw 21% | IF Brommapojkarna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Sirius 2.01 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.123 / def 1.052 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.199 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Sirius (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.74
IF Brommapojkarna xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius 3 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 45% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (3 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sirius's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
45%
2.24
21%
4.70
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.75
1.74
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
17%
5.71
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sirius and 1.74 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 10D 20L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 17W 12D 22L from 51 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.43 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (11W 3D 11L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 10W 5D 10L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.59 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Sirius's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.44 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Sirius
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 52%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sirius and 60% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sirius's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sirius's matches and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out IF Brommapojkarna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.01 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.74 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.20 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 45% | Draw 21% | IF Brommapojkarna 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 63%, IF Brommapojkarna 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.43 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.