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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sirius and Halmstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius and Halmstad finished level at 1-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.24 xG and Halmstad 0.99 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Halmstad attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 42% | Draw 29% | Halmstad 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Halmstad 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, Halmstad 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights