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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sirius run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gais.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat Gais 3-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.18 xG and Gais 1.54 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gais landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Gais attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 29% | Draw 26% | Gais 45%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Gais 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Gais's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights