Sirius 3-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 60%, yet in-form Gais provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 July 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sirius have posted 6W 2D 2L at Studenternas IP — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Gais (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Gais have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Gais are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Gais — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 51% versus Gais 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 63% | Gais 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.89 xG and Gais 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.011 / defence 0.977 | Gais attack 0.703 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.345. Data: 43 Sirius games / 13 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 60% | Draw 22% | Gais 18%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Gais 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gais (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sirius 40% | Gais 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 60% | Draw 22% | Gais 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Sirius 1.89 / Gais 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.011 / def 0.977 | Gais attack 0.703 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Sirius (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Gais xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Gais kick off?
Sirius vs Gais kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Gais?
Sirius 3 - 1 Gais.
Where is Sirius vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Gais part of?
Sirius vs Gais is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 60% chance of winning, Gais a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sirius and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Gais in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Gais (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.70x) against Sirius's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.54
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.81
0.92
Gais xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
37.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sirius and 0.92 for Gais, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 9D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.84 PPG from 43 outings (24W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sirius's home form reads 9W 3D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.79 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Gais in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Gais have gone 24W 7D 12L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; Gais away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sirius or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sirius
0
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, Gais have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sirius 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Gais?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 48%, Gais 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sirius and 62% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gais in 38%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sirius's recent matches and 43% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 62% of Gais's.
Do Sirius and Gais tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Gais in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Gais 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.89 xG and Gais 0.92 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 0.70 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 60% | Draw 22% | Gais 18%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 63%, Gais 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Gais (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.