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Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.51 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights