Sirius 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sirius against 1.90 for Djurgardens IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sirius lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 54% versus Djurgardens IF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 65% | Djurgardens IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.65 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.243 / defence 1.128 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.307 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.383. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Sirius games / 48 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 21% | Djurgardens IF 47%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.12 | Draw 4.76 | Djurgardens IF 2.13. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Djurgardens IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 21% | Djurgardens IF 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Sirius 1.65 / Djurgardens IF 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.243 / def 1.128 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.307 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Djurgardens IF xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Sirius vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Sirius 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Sirius vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 32% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 47% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sirius and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are Sirius and Djurgardens IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.24) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.31x) against Sirius's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
32%
3.17
21%
4.70
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.69
2.04
Djurgardens IF xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
4%
24.32
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sirius and 2.04 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 9D 19L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (26W 7D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Sirius against 1.77 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 11W 2D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.52 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 26W 7D 15L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.52 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Sirius or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 56%, Djurgardens IF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Sirius and 56% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sirius's games and 56% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sirius's matches and 56% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Sirius and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.65 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.04 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.24 / defence 1.13 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.31 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 32% | Draw 21% | Djurgardens IF 47%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 65%, Djurgardens IF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.44 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.