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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over BK Hacken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat BK Hacken 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.04 xG and BK Hacken 1.60 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.78 / defence 1.17 against BK Hacken attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 25% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 50%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, BK Hacken 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, BK Hacken 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights