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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AIK Stockholm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.86 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.36 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.96 / defence 0.78, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sirius 24% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 49%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights